The exit condition

The exit condition

Erdogan said today that the Turkish army will come from Syria and “leave it to the Syrian people” after the elections, which will be formed the new government.

This is to some extent a response to Putin on his words about the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Syria: “…We must strive to ensure that no foreign troops of third countries on the territory of Syria was not for this you need to move,” — said Putin, speaking at a plenary meeting, REN…”

The problem is obvious: to conduct General elections throughout the territory about it must first negotiate the invaders: Turkey, Iran, Russia and the United States, and frankly, don’t even know when and how they will be able to do it.

If you conduct local elections in the occupied territories, the invaders will be forced to remain on them at least in order to guarantee safety.

In other words – political contradictions are not taken, to resolve them through negotiations almost impossible. The conflict may be for some (albeit a long time) are frozen, but it will have to deal, and not the fact that a peaceful way.

For Turkey, by the way, may be a slightly different scenario, but it depends entirely on the actions of the Kremlin. In the case that the Kremlin will be forced to take his interventionist case from Syria (the reasons for this may be two – a military defeat in Syria of “partner” or political catastrophe in Russia itself.

Until one or the other, Putin will not withdraw from Syria, as Assad immediately falls) – in this case for Turkey’s occupation of Idlib would become irrelevant, and the buffer zone of the “Olive branch” and “Shield of the Euphrates” will be required only as a guarantee against the terrorist groups PKK. The issue can be resolved through agreement with the Pro-American Kurds from SDS.

For the Kremlin, the situation is becoming more hopeless to fight it is not with whom, to contain the occupied territory has no resources.

On TV I can tell you that the Syrians passed the next one and a half tons of humanitarian aid, but frankly, it’s not even a drop in the ocean. To stay in Syria do not need to get out of it not because of prestige considerations.

And even create symbolic presence is impossible, as it will lead to the same thing – the collapse of the Assad (or any of its successor, which the invaders planted instead of the current Syrian President).

Dead end – a military and political.


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