U.S. elections: trump over the dark clouds, but he hides the cards
The US democratic party — the Democrats managed to win a majority in the House of representatives, which they did not control since 2011, but Republicans left the Senate. What consequences this will have on foreign and domestic policy.
US election ended in a tie. The Democrats had hoped, maybe more — they wanted more than the gubernatorial post, perhaps control of the Senate.
But yet they managed to make a serious step to limit the ability of trump in domestic and foreign policy — to take control of the lower house, the House of representatives, where he was re-elected all 435 congressmen.
This means that the Democrats will control all the major committees — the armed services Committee, intelligence Committee, Committee on legal Affairs and key budget Committee.
The entire agenda of the trump going to run into resistance. In addition, be sure to establish an additional Commission for the investigation of certain violations, obvious, probable, or conditional.
Trump will be very uncomfortable, because he or his entourage will be able to invite not only the special U.S. attorney Robert Mueller, but even — at a hearing of the congressional Committee, to investigate any financial matters of his family.
Or to force trump to finally provide a Declaration of income in recent years. That is, trump appears a very serious problem in domestic politics, which will affect external.
In the case of outer — first of all we are talking about leverage. So, trump remains their trump cards: first, the Executive power itself, and second, the upper house, the Senate, which approves all appointments and ambassadors, and Ministers. In addition, there is the Supreme court, which, after the introduction there of two conservative judges prorepublican is clearly sympathetic to Trump.
Trump will always be the trump card. The U.S. Supreme court — a rather special organ. He’s not just considering the case, for example, and then consider other cases, he treats the decision of the President or a law passed by Congress for constitutionality. From the point of view of deterrents, it is quite an effective system.
So now we can say that the impeachment trump was talking about before the election, is unlikely. However, democracy is not very necessary. As said by Nancy Pelosi, who will likely become speaker of the lower house, an impeachment is not a Democratic party priority.
But the struggle for all sorts of problems domestic agenda — such as health or education, and issues related to foreign policy, clearly will be the subject of debate and clashes with the house of representatives. It connects to the Trump’s hands and create new problems, largely burying his initiatives in foreign policy.
More likely than impeachment is that there will be attempts to make trump to make any steps to withdraw or to resign. If it is “dig up” something serious.
Soon, probably, will publish the report of the Board of Mueller, and, if there is evidence against trump or his entourage (and such things have already hit the press), for the President there is a problem, what to do next.
Firstly, he is unlikely to run for election in 2020. Secondly, at some stage it can put before a choice — either-or.
Now all the process in the US will accelerate, and we’ll see some new, interesting developments. Muller effectively done, if to do conclusions on the basis of information about the assistants trump: three or four of them already agreed to cooperate with the investigation.
That is what they called They are singing — “They sing,” that is, to testify. I think trump is afraid of this.
However, this is hardly something radically changes for Ukraine. Remember how I voted in the Senate, where Republicans have a majority for the law on sanctions against Russia — 98 votes against 2. Trump wasn’t even thinking about veto.
The mood of the American establishment regarding the possible intervention of Russia in election, opposition from Russia and, the less said, countering China is very serious. I don’t think this plan is something that will change drastically.